This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Florida. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to acquire a great deal of cash from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. I will attempt to get my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 50-100 entries at the $25k decoration, and then I will probably take a few shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter everywhere this battle goes. I believe Gifford’s best shot at a win would be locking a guillotine. Other than that, I think we’ve got a fairly safe win here using Roberts and that’s what I am looking for. I want the wins that are safer in money and I will be concerned about who is going to score the greatest in GPPs. I believe we can eliminate him in the GPPs in his cost because if he puts up 90 DK points in a win then that won’t win $25k. It helps us triumph in money games though and I would be surprised if he had a low scoring win here. I believe he is good for 80-100 points here and I’m totally ok with this in my money lineup.
GPP play of the week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is my GPP play of the week and he’s the greatest ITD chances on the card in -222. This is a setup fight for him to get a knockout and I believe this is quite likely going to take place in the first round. That should place Hardy over 100 points and I am interested in that. Hardy is going to be among my top plays of the week, but he is GPP only for me personally. We can’t trust him sufficient for money games, so that’s why I enjoy Roberts more in that arrangement. I do think Hardy can outscore Roberts even though they both win, and he is $200 cheaper. That may knock Roberts off the top lineup and in spite of high ownership we can win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup so long as he receives the first KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is lined at -130 and that is too good for me to pass in GPPs.
Underdog play of this week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no more the underdog on the gambling line (-120) but DraftKings salaries do not change once they’re released. We get Teixeira here for $400 less costly than Cutelaba and he is favored to get the win. I also believe he could win in the 1st round with a score and submission above 90 points. That would give him a good chance at being to the perfect lineup. I will be targeting both sides of this struggle in GPPs because I do not expect it to go all 3 rounds, but that value on Teixeira is what I like the most and we have to own»underdogs» in our DK lineups with the $50k salary cap. I think the obvious path to success for Glover is to the floor and that’s what I anticipate his game must be. I enjoy him to find a entry win if he is able to land takedowns and he’ll be one of my greatest owned underdogs this week.
Fade of this week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I understand people were expecting me to place Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She is a strong fade as well… However, I am going with Esparza as my fade this week and that I will have zero lineups including her. Generally, Esparza is a decent wrestler and we enjoy wrestlers in DraftKings. I simply don’t see wrestling being in her very best interest against Jandiroba and I believe she uses her wrestling at defense to attempt and keep this fight on the toes. Each of the danger is on the floor in this matchup and Carla gets the boxing of both. I think she could win a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I’d guess it puts up about ~60 DK points. That is not going to reduce it at $8.2k so I just don’t see how she ends up about the $25k lineup this week if she does win, and that’s why she is my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 69-44 to get +224.83u (+$22,483) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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