NASCAR heads to its third 1.5-mile oval track this year, and the first time all year we will see a repeat at the principles package and tire wear combination. Texas is a tire wear oblong, similar to Las Vegas, prior to the 2017 season as a result of its repave and reconfiguration.
As a result, this race in Texas should closely resemble the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway — yet another 1.5-mile low tire wear oval that used the aero duct bundle.
NASCAR Props Challenge Picks for Sunday’s Texas O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Read today Not only will I’m leaning heavily on vegas, but we should also consider the races at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Auto Club Speedway, that were conducted under similar, but not entirely comparable conditions. I use Texas data as the 2017 repave to judge history.
There are three head-to-head matchups that offer great value.
Kevin Harvick (+130) over Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch is the defending race winner at Texas along with the most popular driver on the circuit, which is driving Busch’s price on this one. But give Harvick at Texas to me. Westgate has this in +130 if you are in Las Vegas for the NCAA Tournament. In fact, I would still take down Harvick to +120. Looking at average flag speed at the three big ovals of Las Vegas, Atlanta and Auto Club, Harvick has the speed, edging Busch who comes in third out. Looking at Las Vegas alone, Harvick had the green flag average rate while Busch came in third.
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